Likely and may have are two different words. ‘I likely ran over your cat is different than, I may have run over your cat’ The reality is of course because of the authoritarian nature of china we will likely (not maybe) never know. I will mention that vaccine development for COVID was quick because modern medicine has been preparing for a SARS virus to jump species for 20 years. Which is why there has been so much concern for bird flu and swine flu. Did COVID originate in a lab? Maybe, maybe not. You probably shouldn’t have caught a ban though.